Who will win the election? What this historian who has predicted 9 of past 10 elections says

The article discusses the predictions of historian Allan Lichtman, who has accurately forecasted the outcomes of nine out of the last ten presidential elections. In his latest prediction, he asserts that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the upcoming presidential election. The significance of battleground states like Arizona is highlighted, as they hold 11 electoral votes that could sway the election in favor of either candidate. Lichtman's methodology, known as the "Keys to the White House," consists of thirteen true-false questions that evaluate the performance of the incumbent party. His track record includes a notable exception in the 2000 election, where he predicted Al Gore would win, which did not occur due to a narrow loss.

The article underscores the potential for Lichtman's prediction to be challenged in Arizona, a state known for its fluctuating political allegiances. As the election approaches, understanding these dynamics becomes crucial for both candidates and voters. This insightful analysis sheds light on the complexities of election forecasting in a divided political climate.